Oct. 15, 2006 Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal
Handicapper loves lowly Lions
Sturgeon thinks Detroit will rise against Buffalo
REVIEW-JOURNAL
It's fairly obvious Jon Kitna is nothing more than an average NFL quarterback, and it's more obvious that his Detroit Lions are a below-average team bordering on hopeless.
What is also easy to see, according to veteran handicapper Kelso Sturgeon, is the Lions are in such a bad predicament that they make a good bet today as 1 1/2-point home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills.
"This week's NFL betting card is an outstanding one, with more than a handful of spots available where one can take a few edges, bet his money and have an excellent chance of cashing a ticket," Sturgeon said. "But none to me are more attractive than that of taking the 0-5 Lions over the Bills."
Buffalo is 2-3 straight up and 3-2 against the spread after getting blasted 40-7 last week at Chicago.
"Not only do I expect the Lions to win, I expect them to do it with a flair and by a 10- to 14-point margin. Ninety percent of all football games are decided by the handicapping elements of situation and circumstance," said Sturgeon (kelsosportshandicapping.com).
"This decision to go with the Lions is all situation and circumstance and is supported by a system that has stood the test of time and is so strong it trumps talent, injuries, turnovers, penalties, missed field goals, bad coaching and all the other elements that spell defeat. I call it the F.W.T.O.G.O.B.K, as in, Frankly We're Tired Of Getting Our Butts Kicked.
"When NFL teams reach this point, they do superhuman things, perform at levels they may never reach again during the regular season. They lay it all out there and get the win, and no team can be as tired of getting kicked around like the Lions."
Last week, Detroit blew a 14-point fourth-quarter lead to lose to Minnesota, 26-17. The previous week the Lions blew a 10-point lead and lost at St. Louis, 41-34.
"The Lions may not win another game this season," Sturgeon said, "but I am confident they will get the job done in this spot."
Sturgeon breaks down the rest of the Week 6 schedule:
?Cincinnati (-5 1/2) at Tampa Bay: I certainly have been impressed with the 3-1 Bengals. But it has not been lost on me that their loss came against the only team they have played with a winning record, New England, which crushed them, 38-13. That loss revealed big problems with the offensive line and its ability to protect QB Carson Palmer. The number is simply too high and gives the edge to the Bucs.
?Tennessee at Washington (-10 1/2): The Redskins are strong candidates to bounce upward off a humbling 19-3 loss to the New York Giants last week and have a perfect victim in 0-5 Tennessee, which is the second-worst team in the league behind Oakland. The Titans' 14-13 loss at Indianapolis last week was a fluke and they still remain the best go-against team in the NFL.
?Houston at Dallas (-13): The 2-2 Cowboys come into this off a tough 38-24 loss to Philadelphia and should have little trouble piling up the points against a Houston team that can't stop the Little Sisters of the Poor, giving up a league-worst 435 yards per game. Dallas, which averages 351 yards per game, fifth best in the NFL, also plays tough defense, will absolutely take away the Texans' ground game and make QB David Carr beat them with the pass. Carr may have the best QB rating in the NFL (108.9), but he's playing a real team this week.
?Seattle (-3) at St. Louis: Just in case you missed it, this is not the same Seahawks team that went to the Super Bowl. Seattle (3-1) arrives in St. Louis off a bye week that was preceded by an embarrassing 37-6 loss to Chicago. The numbers tell it all: Seattle averaged 28.3 points per game last season and is averaging just 19.5 this season. It has not scored a TD in road games against Detroit, a 9-6 win, and the outing at Chicago. The Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck has thrown seven interceptions, compared to nine for the 2005 season. St. Louis (4-1) has beaten Denver and lost to San Francisco, but my money says its new offense is finally ready to fire its best shot.
?N.Y. Giants at Atlanta (-3): The Giants are every bit as talented on both sides of the ball as is Atlanta. The biggest edge the Giants have is QB Eli Manning versus Atlanta's Michael Vick, with the former creating a much wider playing field on offense. Stop Vick and you stop the Falcons, and I think the Giants will do just that.
?Philadelphia (-3) at New Orleans: There is no question the 4-1 Eagles will be the most talented team on the field in this one, but there is no way they have recovered from that giant, emotional 38-24 victory over Dallas. If Philadelphia is less than 100 percent, and my figures say it will be, the edge definitely goes to a determined, gritty and improving New Orleans (4-1) team that has defeated the Falcons and the Bucs at home.
?Carolina at Baltimore (-3): Both of these teams can play a little, but the edge has to go to Carolina (3-2) because it has proved it can score points, an element again marked absent in Baltimore (4-1). The Ravens are coming off a tough 13-3 Monday night loss at Denver in a game that they again played excellent defense but could not spell offense. For the record, the Ravens are the No. 2 defense in the AFC, giving up just 219.6 yards per game, but are ranked 13th offensively, grinding out just 267.6 yards per outing. The Panthers play excellent defense, excellent field-position football and can put the ball in the end zone.
?Miami at N.Y. Jets (-2 1/2): These teams grade out dead even in most categories, and the only big knock one can make on Miami is that it is playing its third straight game on the road. Joey Harrington again gets the call at QB, should be much more prepared to play than he was in his first start last week and is meeting a Jets team that cannot stand the heat of a good defense, a fact driven home last week in a 41-0 loss at Jacksonville. New York is 0-2 at home.
?San Diego (-10) at San Francisco: The 3-1 Chargers play the first of two straight road games and won't be taking any prisoners in this one -- there is none worth taking. San Diego has the second-best offense in the AFC, averaging 350.8 yards per game, and the top-ranked defense, giving up just 204.5 yards. The 49ers have a little offense, no defense, no quarterback and a lot of doubts about their ability to beat a good team. Remember this: Kansas City 41, San Francisco 0.
?Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-6 1/2): The Steelers most likely will get the money and snap a three-game losing streak in this one, but this is one handicapper who does not think it will be easy or automatic. The Chiefs are hurting, with QB Trent Green still out and with running back Larry Johnson hobbling, but coach Herman Edwards has a long and predictable history under these circumstances. He forgets the offense and tries to do it with defense. The Chiefs are going to play field-position football and defense and try to get lucky. The yards and points will be hard to come by for Pittsburgh.
?Oakland at Denver (-14 1/2): I'd lay 35 in this one if I had to. The reasons are many, but none is more important than the fact Denver is an outstanding team and is coached by a man who has never forgiven Oakland owner Al Davis for firing him, then beating him out of his money. This means Broncos coach Mike Shanahan will again turn the big dogs loose and beat the Raiders (0-4) as badly as he can. The disparity between these two teams is a "mile high." Denver has one of the best defenses in the NFL and has given up just one touchdown this season. Oakland is so bad offensively the Raiders need a miracle, a road map and a seeing-eye dog to find the end zone.
?Chicago (-10 1/2) at Arizona: The 5-0 Bears have a defense that would make the devil sweat, giving up an NFC-best 234.6 yards per game and an NFL-best 7.2 points per game. They have an offense that leads the league in scoring at 31.2 points per game. Last but not least, Chicago is the most intense, focused and hostile team in the NFL, a squad that will take your head off, then stomp on it. Before this is over, Cardinals rookie QB Matt Leinhart will get an education that he will never forget, and none of it will benefit him or the Cardinals. The Bears are as good as it gets and will put it all on display.
COMPILED BY REVIEW-JOURNAL SPORTS WRITER MATT YOUMANS.
REVIEW-JOURNAL NFL CHALLENGE
Sean DeFrank
Review-Journal
Sports staff
Last week: 1-4
Season: 15-10
Picks:
Bills -1
Rams +3
Falcons -3
Panthers +3
Chargers -10
Allen Leiker
Review-Journal
Assistant sports editor
Last week: 1-4
Season: 6-18-1
Picks:
Bengals -6
Lions +1
Seahawks -3
Eagles -3
Bears -11
Patrick Everson
Review-Journal
Sports staff
Last week: 3-2
Season: 14-11
Picks:
Buccaneers +6
Bills -1
Eagles -3
Jets -2
Chiefs +7
Jeremy Pond
Review-Journal
Sports staff
Last week: 2-3
Season: 11-14
Picks:
Lions +1
Rams +3
Saints +3
Falcons -3
Panthers +3
Ed Graney
Review-Journal
Sports columnist
Last week: 2-3
Season: 14-11
Picks:
Bengals -6
Lions +1
Eagles -3
Panthers +3
49ers +10
Tim Trushel
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Sportsmemo.com
Last week: 3-1-1
Season: 13-10-2
Picks:
Buccaneers +6
Lions +1
Falcons -3
Saints +3
Ravens -3
Joe Hawk
Review-Journal
Sports editor
Last week: 2-2-1
Season: 13-10-2
Picks:
Bengals -6
Eagles -3
Chargers -10
Broncos -15
Cardinals +11
Dave Tuley
Daily Racing
Form (drf.com)
Last week: 4-0-1
Season: 10-13-2
Picks:
Lions +1
Rams +3
Falcons -3
Panthers +3
Cardinals +11
Jay Kornegay
L.V. Hilton sports
book director
Last week: 3-2
Season: 14-11
Picks:
Redskins -10
Rams +3
Falcons -3
49ers +10
Raiders +15
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Review-Journal
Sports staff
Last week: 3-1-1
Season: 14-10-1
Picks:
Rams +3
Saints +3
Panthers +3
Chargers -10
Steelers -7
All point spreads are those used in the official Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest.
