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November-03-2004,
Roller coaster ride - betting on the election...By MajorWager.Com

For the serious punters at MajorWager, yesterday was Christmas come early. Tuesday morning Bush was favored at most sports books between 30-60 cents. As the day progressed Bush slowly became the underdog. Then, something happened. The exit polls were showing that Kerry was leading in just about every state that mattered. At this time the lines were Kerry -30 at WSEX and Kerry -25 at CRIS. Not for long.

After the sharp money got wind of the exit polls, they bet Kerry like they had tomorrows paper. The lines settled at around -300, or 3 to 1, in favor of Kerry at around 5 pm ET. Well, that wasn.t all. As the results started streaming in, it was becoming apparent that the race was much tighter than the exit polls had indicated. Very quickly Bush became a 3 to 1 favorite.

Professional scalpers and bettors had a field day with this line volatility and I cannot imagine that the sports books liked it much. Market volatility at that speed is never a good thing. Many books will move because the market is moving, not because they have weighted action.



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